Friday, March 10, 2017

JOBS REPORT: Employers Added 235,000 jobs In February, Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.7%. Trump Suddenly Believes The "Phony" Numbers

According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics U.S. job growth increased by 235,000 in November, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.7 percent

With this report the private sector will be celebrating a record shattering 77 consecutive months of job growth. That is the longest streak since 1939.

Though Donald Trump may be taking credit for this job's report don't be fooled. This is still President Obama's economy. Even if Trump had enacted any economic policies, which he hasn't, it would still be too early for them to have take effect.

In addition don't forget that these were the same jobs reports that candidate Trump referred to as “phony numbers” coming out of the U.S. Department of Labor and said of the unemployment rate...

The number is probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.

Hell even his Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, told lawmakers during his confirmation hearing in February that he believes the unemployment rate "is not real."

But when the jobs numbers dropped this morning White House Press Secretary Sean "alternative facts" Spicer tried to make light of Donald Trump’s flip-flopping on the the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ job reports during a press conference flippantly saying...

I talked to the president prior to this and he said to quote him very clearly, ‘They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now,'

Even Trump couldn't help but gloat over President Obama's job report numbers which he, of course claimed as his own...

How convenient that Trump finally believes the numbers in the report after only 50 days in office but what would you expect from a man who made a living putting his name on things other people built.

With that being said let's take a look at how the Jobs Report numbers breaks down...

The number of unemployed persons, at 7.5 million, changed little in February and the unemployment rate, at 4.7 percent, was little changed over the month but was down from 4.9 percent a year ago.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate decreased as employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 358,000.
About a quarter of the job gains occurred in construction which increased by 58,000, with gains in specialty trade contractors (+36,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+15,000). Construction has added 177,000 jobs over the past 6 months.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $26.09, following a 5-cent increase in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 71 cents, or 2.8 percent.

Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.86 in February.

In other positive news the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down from +157,000 to +155,000, and the change for January was revised up from +227,000 to +238,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 9,000 more than previously reported.

Additionally, after an unexpected drop in January, wage growth was revised higher in Friday's report. Recent pay growth in the United States partly reflects higher minimum wages that took effect at the start of the year in 19 states, economists said. In addition, steady job gains tend to raise pay as employers compete for workers.

At the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates for the third time since President Obama's recovery.

Average hourly earnings rose by 2.8% year-on-year in January and February.

The labor-force participation rate increased to 63%.

Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month.

The unemployment rate is at a level Fed officials consider to be full employment, which means virtually everyone who wants a job can get one, at least theoretically.

Here are some economic analyst take on this months report...

Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics opined...

I would say it’s a bit early to attribute much of the strength [to Trump]. It’s not clear that the trend in employment growth has changed much since the election. I emphasize that it was already pretty strong. That being said, the surveys have picked up for sure and the equity market is up pretty sharply.

Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said...

"It's hard to find much to dislike in the February jobs report,"

 said Russell Price, an economist at Ameriprise Financial stated....

"There are few factors more important to consumers than jobs. Overall, consumers are in great shape to support an accelerated pace of economic growth."

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